Estimation of the instantaneous volatility

Details Estimation of the instantaneous volatility Estimation of the instantaneous volatility

2008-12-18

arxiv.org/abs/0812.3538v4

Economy

Quantitative Finance

Statistical Finance

Submitted to Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes. 28 pages, 4 figures

Scientific paper

This paper is concerned with the estimation of the volatility process in a stochastic volatility model of the following form: $dX_t=a_tdt+\sigma_tdW_t$, where $X$ denotes the log-price and $\sigma$ is a c\`adl\`ag semi-martingale. In the spirit of a series of recent works on the estimation of the cumulated volatility, we here focus on the instantaneous volatility for which we study estimators built as finite differences of the \textit{power variations} of the log-price. We provide central limit theorems with an optimal rate depending on the local behavior of $\sigma$. In particular, these theorems yield some confidence intervals for $\sigma_t$.

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