Estimating the Size and Timing of the Maximum Amplitude of Solar Cycle 24

Details Estimating the Size and Timing of the Maximum Amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 Estimating the Size and Timing of the Maximum Amplitude of Solar Cycle 24

Oct 2005

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2005chjaa...5..539l&link_type=abstract

Chinese Journal of Astronomy and Astrophysics, Volume 5, Issue 5, pp. 539-545 (2005).

Astronomy and Astrophysics

Astrophysics

15

Scientific paper

A simple statistical method is used to estimate the size and timing of maximum amplitude of the next solar cycle (cycle 24). Presuming cycle 23 to be a short cycle (as is more likely), the minimum of cycle 24 should occur about December 2006 (±2 months) and the maximum, around March 2011 (±9 months), and the amplitude is 189.9±15.5, if it is a fast riser, or about 136, if it is a slow riser. If we presume cycle 23 to be a long cycle (as is less likely), the minimum of cycle 24 should occur about June 2008 (±2 months) and the maximum, about February 2013 (±8 months) and the maximum will be about 137 or 80, according as the cycle is a fast riser or a slow riser.

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