Estimating the Risk of Radiation Induced Failures on International Space Station during a Major Solar Particle Event

Mathematics – Probability

Scientific paper

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Scientific paper

Estimating the Risk of Radiation Induced Failures on International Space Station During a We develop a method for calculating an upper bound probability that International Space Station (ISS) equipment will experience single event effects (SEE) during solar particle events of various magnitudes. To make this assessment, we define and apply an SEE scaling parameter to SEE rates previously calculated for the ISS extreme solar particle event design environment. This scaling parameter is based upon historical particle event data. We also use historical particle event data to calculate an upper bound probability per ISS mission day that an equipment item will suffer an SEE due to exposure to a solar particle event.

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