Estimating Earth Impact Probabilities for Long Period Comets

Details Estimating Earth Impact Probabilities for Long Period Comets Estimating Earth Impact Probabilities for Long Period Comets

Sep 1996

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1996dps....28.0816c&link_type=abstract

American Astronomical Society, DPS meeting #28, #08.16; Bulletin of the American Astronomical Society, Vol. 28, p.1086

Statistics

Computation

Scientific paper

The recent close Earth approach of comet 1996 B2 Hyakutake and the upcoming close passage of comet 1995 O1 Hale-Bopp near the Earth's orbit remind us of the collision hazard posed by long-period comets. Since these objects are typically discovered only a few months to a year before they approach the Earth, and they encounter the Earth at high relative velocities (e.g. 57 km/s for C/Hyakutake), the impact warning time would be short. As case studies, we considered two simulated long-period comets on Earth impact trajectories and examined the evolution of the impact probabilities. Comets Hyakutake and Hale-Bopp were used as models, their orbital elements modified to put them on Earth collision trajectories. Impact was pre-perihelion in the Hyakutake case, and post-perihelion for the Hale-Bopp case. The timing, geometry, and measurement errors of the simulated observations closely matched the actual observation sets. The computation of orbit solutions was simulated for various dates, from shortly after discovery to shortly before impact, and the computed impact probability and close approach distance versus solution time were plotted. Systematic measurement errors caused the early close approach estimates to be biased away from the Earth. The probability of impact did not rise above 0.5 until about 30 days before impact for the Hyakutake case, and about 300 days before impact for the Hale-Bopp case. The effects of unmodeled nongravitational accelerations due to outgassing were also considered.

Affiliated with

Also associated with

No associations

Rating

Estimating Earth Impact Probabilities for Long Period Comets does not yet have a rating. At this time, there are no reviews or comments for this scientific paper.

If you have personal experience with Estimating Earth Impact Probabilities for Long Period Comets, we encourage you to share that experience with our LandOfFree.com community. Your opinion is very important and Estimating Earth Impact Probabilities for Long Period Comets will most certainly appreciate the feedback.

Rate now

Comments { 0 }

Profile ID: LFWR-SCP-O-1461058