Estimated PDFs of climate system properties including natural and anthropogenic forcings

Details Estimated PDFs of climate system properties including natural and anthropogenic forcings Estimated PDFs of climate system properties including natural and anthropogenic forcings

Jan 2006

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2006georl..3301705f&link_type=abstract

Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 33, Issue 1, CiteID L01705

Mathematics

Probability

45

Global Change: Atmosphere (0315, 0325), Global Change: Climate Dynamics (0429, 3309), Global Change: Earth System Modeling (1225), Global Change: Global Climate Models (3337, 4928), Global Change: Water Cycles (1836)

Scientific paper

We present revised probability density functions (PDF) for climate system properties (climate sensitivity, rate of deep-ocean heat uptake, and the net aerosol forcing strength) that include the effect on 20th century temperature changes of natural as well as anthropogenic forcings. The additional natural forcings, primarily the cooling by volcanic eruptions, affect the PDF by requiring a higher climate sensitivity and a lower rate of deep-ocean heat uptake to reproduce the observed temperature changes. The estimated 90% range of climate sensitivity is 2.1 to 8.9 K. The net aerosol forcing strength for the 1980s shifted toward positive values to compensate for the volcanic forcing with 90% bounds of -0.74 to -0.14 W/m2. The rate of deep-ocean heat uptake is reduced with the effective diffusivity, Kv, ranging from 0.05 to 4.1 cm2/s. This upper bound implies that many AOGCMs mix heat into the deep ocean (below the mixed layer) too efficiently.

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