Error Estimation for Simulations of Nucleosynthesis in Exploding Stars

Statistics – Computation

Scientific paper

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Scientific paper

We have carried out the first Monte Carlo simulations of the synthesis of elements in exploding stars. We quantitatively examine the impact of nuclear physics uncertainties on predictions of models of nova explosions wherein, for the first time, the uncertainties of all relevant nuclear reactions are considered simultaneously. Exploiting distributed memory parallelism, our Monte Carlo code enabled us to determine quantitative uncertainties in predictions of isotope synthesis - including radioactive isotopes which can be observable tracers of novae - due to uncertainties in the input nuclear physics. This is important for comparing model calculations to observations, and to determine the sensitivity of space-borne gamma-ray observatories. We also determine the correlations between 882 input nuclear reaction rates and the predicted abundances of 169 nuclides, crucially important for guiding future experimental and theoretical work. Results of our calculations will be presented using some custom visualization tools.

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