Epidemics with general generation interval distributions

Details Epidemics with general generation interval distributions Epidemics with general generation interval distributions

2009-05-13

arxiv.org/abs/0905.2174v2

Biology

Quantitative Biology

Populations and Evolution

Scientific paper

We study the spread of susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) infectious diseases where an individual's infectiousness and probability of recovery depend on his/her "age" of infection. We focus first on early outbreak stages when stochastic effects dominate and show that epidemics tend to happen faster than deterministic calculations predict. If an outbreak is sufficiently large, stochastic effects are negligible and we modify the standard ordinary differential equation (ODE) model to accommodate age-of-infection effects. We avoid the use of partial differential equations which typically appear in related models. We introduce a "memoryless" ODE system which approximates the true solutions. Finally, we analyze the transition from the stochastic to the deterministic phase.

Affiliated with

Also associated with

No associations

Rating

Epidemics with general generation interval distributions does not yet have a rating. At this time, there are no reviews or comments for this scientific paper.

If you have personal experience with Epidemics with general generation interval distributions, we encourage you to share that experience with our LandOfFree.com community. Your opinion is very important and Epidemics with general generation interval distributions will most certainly appreciate the feedback.

Rate now

Comments { 0 }

Profile ID: LFWR-SCP-O-129586