Mathematics – Probability
Scientific paper
Nov 2002
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2002esasp.500..465v&link_type=abstract
In: Proceedings of Asteroids, Comets, Meteors - ACM 2002. International Conference, 29 July - 2 August 2002, Berlin, Germany. Ed
Mathematics
Probability
Trans-Neptunian Objects: Ephemeris
Scientific paper
Statistical orbital ranging is a unique and practical means of making rigorous ephemeris predictions for transneptunian objects (TNOs) having short observational arcs. Whereas TNO orbital element probability densities are complicated, the projected distributions of their sky-plane uncertainties are often unambiguous. However, following the last observation, ephemeris uncertainty grows almost linearly with time, making follow-up in subsequent apparitions tedious, if not impossible. Statistical ranging has the option of applying filters by imposing a priori information on the orbital element distributions, which results in smaller ephemeris uncertainty and focuses searches into the most likely regions on the sky. We illustrate the successful use of our technique. We are developing both an optimized observing strategy for maximum improvement in orbital accuracy using a minimum number of observations, and a web-based application.
Bowell Edward
Muinonen Karri
Tancredi Gonzalo
Virtanen Jenni
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