Environmental fluctuation effects on the global energy balance

Mathematics – Probability

Scientific paper

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Atmospheric Heat Budget, Atmospheric Models, Climatology, Air Land Interactions, Albedo, Mathematical Models, Solar Terrestrial Interactions, Temperature Effects

Scientific paper

The qualitative effects of environmental fluctuations on the global energy balance are examined at the level of a zero-dimensional planetary model. External noise representing environmental fluctuations is multiplicatively coupled to the deterministic equations of evolution. An expression obtained for the maximum of the steady-state temperature probability distribution function is applied to fluctuations of the solar constant, the emissivity of the earth-atmosphere system at fixed albedo and albedo and emissivity together as a result of cloudiness, to reveal that solar constant and emissivity fluctuations lead to lower temperature values. Fluctuating cloudiness is shown to lead to small increases in temperature, due to the opposite effects of albedo and emissivity variations. The possible generation of runaway temperature regimes due to fluctuating environmental parameters is also noted.

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