Entering into the ``greenhouse century'': Recent record temperatures in Switzerland are comparable to the upper temperature quantiles in a greenhouse climate

Details Entering into the ``greenhouse century'': Recent record temperatures in Switzerland are comparable to the upper temperature quantiles in a greenhouse climate Entering into the ``greenhouse century'': Recent record temperatures in Switzerland are comparable to the upper temperature quantiles in a greenhouse climate

Aug 2007

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2007georl..3416710b&link_type=abstract

Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 34, Issue 16, CiteID L16710

Statistics

7

Global Change: Climate Variability (1635, 3305, 3309, 4215, 4513), Global Change: Regional Climate Change, Atmospheric Processes: Climate Change And Variability (1616, 1635, 3309, 4215, 4513), Atmospheric Processes: Regional Modeling

Scientific paper

This paper investigates the recent spate of record-breaking warm seasons that have affected Switzerland in less than a decade and compares the seasonal statistics to those simulated for a ``greenhouse-gas'' climate by the end of the 21st century. The peaks of minimum and maximum temperatures observed during some the record seasons enter well into the 25%-75% temperature quantile range for the scenario climate simulated by a set of regional climate models. The anomalously warm seasons allow a ``preview'' of conditions that may occur with greater frequency in the future. The use of current data as a form of proxy for the future enables an assessment of the possible impacts on the natural and socio-economic environments, and can help in considering possible adaptation strategies to reduce some of the associated risks of climatic change.

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