Empirical Solar Energetic Particle Prediction Using Density Estimation Methods

Details Empirical Solar Energetic Particle Prediction Using Density Estimation Methods Empirical Solar Energetic Particle Prediction Using Density Estimation Methods

Dec 2006

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2006agufmsh43b1523b&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2006, abstract #SH43B-1523

Mathematics

Probability

2114 Energetic Particles (7514), 4468 Probability Distributions, Heavy And Fat-Tailed (3265), 7514 Energetic Particles (2114), 7519 Flares

Scientific paper

Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events are an important type of space weather phenomena and have a significant impact on human activities and systems. NOAA's Space Environment Center has the responsibility to be the official source for alerts, warnings, and forecasts of SEP's in the U.S. Although a physics based model for these predictions would be ideal, current forecasts are limited by making use of what solar phenomena are actually observed and available in real time. This has led to an emphasis on development of empirical statistical prediction methods. This paper will discuss an updated database of SEP events and a corresponding non-SEP event database that have been constructed for the last two solar cycles, 1986-2004. The paper will focus on new approaches to predicting SEP probability based on this data, including multi- variate density estimation and discriminant analysis. The performance of these methods will be compared with the current operational model using standard forecast verification measures.

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