Elementary Statistics on Trial (the case of Lucia de Berk)

Details Elementary Statistics on Trial (the case of Lucia de Berk) Elementary Statistics on Trial (the case of Lucia de Berk)

2010-09-04

arxiv.org/abs/1009.0802v1

Statistics

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Submitted to Statistica Neerlandica. 15 pages

Scientific paper

In the conviction of Lucia de Berk an important role was played by a simple hypergeometric model, used by the expert consulted by the court, which produced very small probabilities of occurrences of certain numbers of incidents. We want to draw attention to the fact that, if we take into account the variation among nurses in incidents they experience during their shifts, these probabilities can become considerably larger. This points to the danger of using an oversimplified discrete probability model in these circumstances.

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