Effects of population mixing on the spread of SIR epidemics

Details Effects of population mixing on the spread of SIR epidemics Effects of population mixing on the spread of SIR epidemics

2005-10-17

arxiv.org/abs/nlin/0510037v1

Nonlinear Sciences

Cellular Automata and Lattice Gases

Scientific paper

10.1140/epjb/e2006-00136-7

We study dynamics of spread of epidemics of SIR type in a realistic spatially-explicit geographical region, Southern and Central Ontario, using census data obtained from Statistics Canada, and examine the role of population mixing in epidemic processes. Our model incorporates the random nature of disease transmission, the discreteness and heterogeneity of distribution of host population. We find that introduction of a long-range interaction destroys spatial correlations very easily if neighbourhood sizes are homogeneous. For inhomogeneous neighbourhoods, very strong long-range coupling is required to achieve a similar effect. Our work applies to the spread of in influenza during a single season and our model is applicable to other geographic regions, if suitable data is available.

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