Effect of The October-November 2003 Super-storms On Thermospheric Density and Composition

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2435 Ionospheric Disturbances, 0355 Thermosphere: Composition And Chemistry

Scientific paper

Changes in the density and composition of the neutral atmosphere create variable satellite drag, adversely affecting our ability to identify and track objects in space and to predict their re-entry into the atmosphere. There is currently limited insight into their causes, or ability to predict these density changes. In recent years, models of the coupled thermosphere-ionosphere system have been developed that identify the major contributors to the aeronomy of the upper atmosphere, and offer the potential for space-weather specification and prediction. Very little work has been done to validate the global models with large ionosphere-thermosphere data sets. Some of the uncertainty in the global first-principles models results from difficulty in accurately specifying the inputs of solar fluxes at a range of wavelengths, high-latitude particle precipitation and electric fields, and upward propagating waves and tides. Another difficulty is finding adequate data for a meaningful validation. The October-November 2003 Super-storms provide an opportunity to validate the models for extreme conditions. There are a large number of observations to help specify both the inputs to the model, and to validate the model predictions. We present accelerometer data from the GRACE mission to test our understanding and modeling of the effects of solar EUV, Joule heating and momentum forcing on thermospheric densities in the 300 - 500 km region for these storms. We also use observations from the TIMED-GUVI instrument to validate the model predictions of thermospheric composition.

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