Mathematics – Probability
Scientific paper
May 2005
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2005dda....36.1305t&link_type=abstract
American Astronomical Society, DDA meeting #36, #13.05; Bulletin of the American Astronomical Society, Vol. 37, p.531
Mathematics
Probability
Scientific paper
Asteroids can be eclipsed by a planet, a moon, or by another asteroid. We describe a statistical method to predict an eclipse for an asteroid, based on the analysis of the orbital elements covariance matrix. By propagating a set of Virtual Asteroids to an epoch correspondent to a close approach with another Solar System body, it is possible to estimate the probability that the asteroid will cross the body's penumbra or umbra cone.
Since different Virtual Asteroids can enter and leave the penumbra cone at different times, and their apparent magnitudes can differ, the direct observation of an eclipse can provide data useful to improve the asteroid orbit.
As an application of this method, we have checked for eclipses by the Moon or the Earth for all the known Near Earth Asteroids in the 1990-2050 period, detecting several eclipses. In particular, the asteroid 2004 MN4 has a probability of about 0.47 to enter the Moon's penumbra cone and a probability of about 0.08 to enter the umbra cone on April 14, 2029 less than one day after a very close approach with the Earth.
Hearn Nathan C.
Lake George
Tricarico Pasquale
Worthey Guy
No associations
LandOfFree
Eclipse Prediction and Orbit Improvement for Near Earth Asteroids does not yet have a rating. At this time, there are no reviews or comments for this scientific paper.
If you have personal experience with Eclipse Prediction and Orbit Improvement for Near Earth Asteroids, we encourage you to share that experience with our LandOfFree.com community. Your opinion is very important and Eclipse Prediction and Orbit Improvement for Near Earth Asteroids will most certainly appreciate the feedback.
Profile ID: LFWR-SCP-O-771040