Mathematics – Probability
Scientific paper
Aug 2002
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2002georl..29p..27r&link_type=abstract
Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 29, Issue 16, pp. 27-1, CiteID 1780, DOI 10.1029/2002GL015297
Mathematics
Probability
3
Seismology: Seismic Hazard Assessment And Prediction, Seismology: Earthquake Parameters, Seismology: Seismicity And Seismotectonics
Scientific paper
We present an earthquake potential estimate for magnitude 5.4 or larger earthquakes for China. The potential is expressed as the rate density, or the probability per unit area, magnitude and time, and it is based on smoothed seismicity. We constructed a special earthquake catalog, which combines previous catalogs covering different times. After deriving regression relationships, we estimated moment magnitudes for some events. Then we used the special catalog for constructing our smoothed seismicity model and testing it retrospectively. Using maximum likelihood we estimated the completeness threshold, the b-value, and the corner magnitude. We adopted a kind of Gutenberg-Richter distribution with modifications at higher magnitude and assumed a uniform b-value and upper magnitude limit derived from the special catalog. From smoothed seismicity, we estimated local ``a-values''. We have begun a ``prospective'' test, finding that earthquakes since the beginning of 2000 are quite compatible with the model.
Jackson David D.
Rong Yufang
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