Earthquake forecast models for inland Japan based on the G-R law and the modified G-R law

Details Earthquake forecast models for inland Japan based on the G-R law and the modified G-R law Earthquake forecast models for inland Japan based on the G-R law and the modified G-R law

Mar 2011

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2011ep%26s...63..239h&link_type=abstract

Earth, Planets and Space, Volume 63, Issue 3, p. 239-260.

Computer Science

Scientific paper

The frequency-magnitude distribution expressed by the Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) law is the basis of a simple method to forecast earthquakes. The frequency-magnitude distribution is sometimes approximated by the modified G-R law, which imposes a maximum magnitude. In this study we tested three earthquake forecast models: Cbv (the Constant b-value model) based on only the G-R law with a spatially constant b-value, Vbv (the Variable b-value model) based on only the G-R law with regionally variable b-values, and MGR (the Modified G-R model) based on the modified G-R or G-R law (chosen according to Akaike Information Criterion) with regionally variable b-values. We also incorporated aftershock decay and minimum limits of expected seismicity in these models. Comparing the results of retrospective forecasts by the three models, we found that MGR was almost always better than Vbv; Cbv was better than Vbv for short-term (one year) forecasts; little difference between MGR and Cbv for short-term forecasts; and MGR and Vbv tended to be better than Cbv for long-term (three years or longer) forecasts. We propose the use of MGR in the earthquake forecast testing experiment by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability for Japan.

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