Mathematics – Probability
Scientific paper
Sep 2008
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2008aipc.1043..216c&link_type=abstract
EXPLORING THE SOLAR SYSTEM AND THE UNIVERSE. AIP Conference Proceedings, Volume 1043, pp. 216-217 (2008).
Mathematics
Probability
Stellar Rotation, Probability Theory, Stochastic Processes, And Statistics, Fourier Analysis, Celestial Mechanics, El Nino Southern Oscillation
Scientific paper
The Earth rotation response to El-Nin~o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events is investigated by means of Fourier approximation of the universal time (UT1-TAI) variations according solution C04 of the IERS. The UT1 variations at ENSO frequencies are approximated by 21 oscillations with periods between 1.5 and 5.4 years, whose superposition yields time series with behavior rather similar to the variations of ENSO Index. The delay of the UT1 response to the ENSO events is about 0.5a. The correlation between the variations of ENSO Index and UT1 is negative and with coefficients between -0.59 and -0.68 for some periods. A linear regression UT1-TAI = -73.78EI-8.53 [ms] between UT1 variations and ENSO Index EI is determined. The comparisons between the EI variations for the past epochs and the UT1-TAI backward extrapolation shows that the model of UT1, based on Fourier approximation, has weak prediction ability.
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