Early Constraints From The MEarth Project On The Occurrence Rate Of Super-Earth And Neptune-sized Exoplanets Orbiting Mid-to-Late M Dwarfs

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Using an array of modest ground-based telescopes, the MEarth Project is photometrically monitoring nearby mid-to-late M dwarfs with sufficient precision to detect transiting exoplanets as small as twice the radius of the Earth. Having a reliably characterized input catalog of 2,000, high proper-motion, low-mass stars enables us to simulate our planet detection sensitivity in detail and place limits on the occurrence rate of planets orbiting mid-to-late M dwarfs. I will present preliminary results from a statistical analysis of the first 1,000 M dwarfs with MEarth light curves, including constraints on the fraction of such stars that may host super-Earth or Neptune-sized planets. Neither the Kepler Mission nor the optical radial velocity surveys probe substantial numbers of stars cooler than 3500K; the MEarth Project's occurrence rate estimates are highly complimentary to these other large efforts. Our statistical estimates will continue to improve as MEarth collects more data and we progress toward our ultimate goal of detecting a transiting super-Earth in the habitable zone of its host M dwarf. Importantly, thanks to its favorable planet-to-star contrast ratio, the atmosphere of such a habitable planet could be spectroscopically characterized using JWST.

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