Dynamo theory prediction of solar activity

Details Dynamo theory prediction of solar activity Dynamo theory prediction of solar activity

Dec 1988

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1988esasp.286..333s&link_type=abstract

In ESA, Seismology of the Sun and Sun-Like Stars p 333-336 (SEE N89-25819 19-92)

Computer Science

Dynamo Theory, Solar Activity, Solar Atmosphere, Solar Cycles, Data Acquisition, Predictions, Solar Radiation, Solar Terrestrial Interactions

Scientific paper

The dynamo theory technique to predict decadal time scale solar activity variations is introduced. The technique was developed following puzzling correlations involved with geomagnetic precursors of solar activity. Based upon this, a dynamo theory method was developed to predict solar activity. The method was used successfully in solar cycle 21 by Schatten, Scherrer, Svalgaard, and Wilcox, after testing with 8 prior solar cycles. Schatten and Sofia used the technique to predict an exceptionally large cycle, peaking early (in 1990) with a sunspot value near 170, likely the second largest on record. Sunspot numbers are increasing, suggesting that: (1) a large cycle is developing, and (2) that the cycle may even surpass the largest cycle (19). A Sporer Butterfly method shows that the cycle can now be expected to peak in the latter half of 1989, consistent with an amplitude comparable to the value predicted near the last solar minimum.

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