Mathematics – Probability
Scientific paper
Jan 1985
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1985kosis..23..123b&link_type=abstract
Kosmicheskie Issledovaniia (ISSN 0023-4206), vol. 23, Jan.-Feb. 1985, p. 123-133. In Russian.
Mathematics
Probability
Aerospace Safety, Solar Cosmic Rays, Solar Protons, Solar Radiation Shielding, Algorithms, Particle Diffusion, Particle Flux Density, Predictions, Probability Density Functions, Probability Theory
Scientific paper
A probabilistic method for the prediction of the radiation characteristics of solar cosmic rays (SCR) based on a priori information about the parameters of solar proton events (SPE) is proposed with reference to radiation-safety assurance for spacecraft flight crews and equipment. Particular consideration is given to: (1) the prediction algorithm; (2) choice and comparison of SPE models; (3) construction of distribution functions of various SPE parameters; (4) construction of an a priori probability density function of SPE parameters; and (5) validation of the full scheme for the prediction of SPE dynamics. The effectiveness of the proposed method for the prediction of SCR flux dynamics is demonstrated, and attention is given to the possibility of improving the method by taking into account a priori information about the spectrum and physical limits of the parameters of SCR propagation.
Bengin V. V.
Miroshnichenko L. P.
Petrov V. M.
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