Dynamical evolution of five long-period comets with evident non-gravitational effects

Mathematics – Probability

Scientific paper

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Long-Period Comets, Dynamical Evolution, Non-Gravitational Effects

Scientific paper

Dynamical evolution of five comets: C/1995 O1 Hale-Bopp (q = 0.92 AU), C/1996 B2 Hyakutake (q = 0.23 AU), C/1998 P1 Williams (q = 1.15), C/1998 T1 Linear (q = 1.47 AU) and C/1999 H1 Lee (q = 0.71 AU) is investigated. Two sets of 401 orbits (corresponding to the pure gravitational and non-gravitational case, respectively) determined directly from positional observations are constructed for each comet. These ensembles of orbits were integrated forwards and backwards up to 400 kyr and analyzed with respect to probability of different outcomes such as: captured/ejected orbits, long-period and short-period orbits. The statistical conclusions change significantly when the non-gravitational effects are included in the analysis.

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