Dynamical Evolution of Comets and the Problem of Cometary Fading

Mathematics – Probability

Scientific paper

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Comets, Dynamics, Fading Problem

Scientific paper

Possibilities to explain the observed 1/a-distribution are discussed in the light of improved understanding of the dynamical evolution of long-period comets. It appears that the ‘fading problem’ applies both to single-injection and continuous-injection models. Although uncertainties due to nongravitational effects do not allow detailed results to be drawn from the observed 1/a-distribution at small perihelion distance q, that for q ≳ 1.5 AU shows that a constant fading probability cannot explain all the features of the observed distribution. Assuming that comets can reappear following a period of fading, values for the assumed constant fading and renewal probabilities, and the total cometary flux have been estimated for q > 1.5 AU.

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