Dst Prediction Based on Solar Wind Parameters

Details Dst Prediction Based on Solar Wind Parameters Dst Prediction Based on Solar Wind Parameters

Dec 2009

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2009jass...26..425p&link_type=abstract

Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences. Vol. 26, no. 4, 425-438

Astronomy and Astrophysics

Astronomy

Magnetic Storm, Dst Index, Solar Wind, Storm Prediction

Scientific paper

We reevaluate the Burton equation (Burton et al. 1975) of predicting Dst index using high quality hourly solar wind data supplied by the ACE satellite for the period from 1998 to 2006. Sixty magnetic storms with monotonously decreasing main phase are selected. In order to determine the injection term (Q) and the decay time (tau) of the equation, we examine the relationships between Dst^ast and VB_s, Delta Dst^ast and VB_s, and Delta Dst^ast and Dst^ast during the magnetic storms. For this analysis, we take into account one hour of the propagation time from the ACE satellite to the magnetopause, and a half hour of the response time of the magnetosphere/ring current to the solar wind forcing. The injection term is found to be Q({nT}/h)=-3.56VB_s for VB_s>0.5mV/m and Q({nT}/h)=0 for VB_s leq0.5mV/m. The tau (hour) is estimated as 0.060 Dst^ast + 16.65 for Dst^ast>-175nT and 6.15 hours for Dst^ast leq -175nT. Based on these empirical relationships, we predict the 60 magnetic storms and find that the correlation coefficient between the observed and predicted Dst^ast is 0.88. To evaluate the performance of our prediction scheme, the 60 magnetic storms are predicted again using the models by Burton et al. (1975) and O'Brien & McPherron (2000a). The correlation coefficients thus obtained are 0.85, the same value for both of the two models. In this respect, our model is slightly improved over the other two models as far as the correlation coefficients is concerned. Particularly our model does a better job than the other two models in predicting intense magnetic storms (Dst^ast lesssim -200nT).

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