Mathematics – Probability
Scientific paper
Apr 1991
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1991jgr....96.5697k&link_type=abstract
Journal of Geophysical Research (ISSN 0148-0227), vol. 96, April 1, 1991, p. 5697-5706. NSERC-supported research.
Mathematics
Probability
11
Auroras, Geomagnetism, Magnetic Storms, Auroral Electrojets, Evening, Magnetometers, Solar Terrestrial Interactions
Scientific paper
The distribution of regions of localized auroral luminosity in the poleward portion of the evening sector auroral oval is studied using images in the UV portion of the auroral spectrum acquired by the Viking satellite over nine months in 1986. It is found that auroral surface activity peaks in the hour before local magnetic midnight, with the probability of detecting a surge steadily decreasing to 10 percent of the probability of finding a surge in the hour prior to midnight in the westward direction toward 1900 MLT. It is shown that this finding is not dependent on the threshold chosen for surge identification over a reasonable portion of the intensity range covered by the Viking imager. It is further shown that for the interval of several months near sunspot minimum in 1986 there is better than a 90 percent chance that no surge will be detected in an arbitrary one-hour range of magnetic local time. It is found that long-lived surge forms do not propagate significantly away from their points of origin.
Kidd Stephen R.
Rostoker Gordon
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