Development of Empirical Forecast Models of Geomagnetic Storms, Solar Proton Events, and Solar Flares based on Solar Information

Details Development of Empirical Forecast Models of Geomagnetic Storms, Solar Proton Events, and Solar Flares based on Solar Information Development of Empirical Forecast Models of Geomagnetic Storms, Solar Proton Events, and Solar Flares based on Solar Information

Dec 2010

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2010agufmsh51c1697m&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2010, abstract #SH51C-1697

Mathematics

Probability

[7924] Space Weather / Forecasting, [7959] Space Weather / Models

Scientific paper

We are developing empirical space weather (solar flares, solar proton events, and geomagnetic storms) forecast models based on solar information. These models have been set up with the concept of probabilistic forecast using historical events. Major findings can be summarized as follows. First, we presented a concept of storm probability map depending on CME parameters as well as contingency tables between prediction and observation with their statistical parameters. Second, we suggested a new geoeffective CME parameter, earthward direction parameter, and demonstrated its importance in terms of the forecast of geomagnetic storms. Third, the importance of solar magnetic field orientation for storm occurrence was examined. Fourth, the relationship among coronal hole-CIR-storm relationship has been investigated, Fifth, the CIR forecast based on coronal hole information is possible but the storm forecast is challenging. Sixth, a new proton event forecast method depending on flare parameters (flare strength, duration, and longitude) as well as CME parameter (speed and angular width) has been suggested. Seventh, we are examining the probability of solar flares depending on sunspot McIntosh classification and its area change (as a proxy of flux change).

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