Development of a geomagnetic storm prediction scheme

Details Development of a geomagnetic storm prediction scheme Development of a geomagnetic storm prediction scheme

Jun 1985

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1985aufg.rept.....a&link_type=abstract

Final Report, 23 Feb. 1982 - 23 Apr. 1985 Alaska Univ., Fairbanks. Geophysical Inst.

Other

Atmospheric Temperature, Computer Techniques, Computerized Simulation, Earth (Planet), Earth Ionosphere, Earth Magnetosphere, Geomagnetism, Interplanetary Magnetic Fields, Magnetic Storms, Polar Caps, Polar Regions, Position (Location), Prediction Analysis Techniques, Propagation Velocity, Solar Activity, Solar Wind, Subroutines, Time Dependence, Convection, Data Processing, Independent Variables, Injection, Input, Rates (Per Time)

Scientific paper

Since present geomagnetic storm prediction schemes rely entirely on statistical results, so that they can't provide quantitative information on the intensity of a geomagnetic storm caused by a particular solar event, a first generation numerical prediction scheme. The scheme consists of two major computer codes which consist of a large number of subroutine codes and of empirical relationships. When a solar flare occurs, six flare parameters are determined as the input data set for the first code which is devised to show the simulated propagation of solar wind disturbances in the heliosphere to a distance of 2 AU. Thus, one can determine the relative location of the propagating disturbances with the earth's position. The solar wind speed and the three interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) components are then computed as a function of time at the Earth's location or any other desired (space probe) locations. These quantities become the input parameters for the second major code which computes the power of the solar wind-magnetosphere dynamo as a function of time.

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