Determination of the auroral oval Q index from the air weather service K index

Mathematics – Logic

Scientific paper

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Atmospheric Models, Auroras, Dmsp Satellites, Earth Ionosphere, Kp Index, Meteorological Satellites, Particle Precipitation, Real Time Operation, Time Functions, Magnetic Fields, Magnetic Variations, Regression Analysis, Weather Forecasting

Scientific paper

The AWS determines the auroral oval diameter in real time as a function of the Kp index from the particle precipitation measured aboard Defense Meteorological Satellites (DMSP). For the Q index needed to drive the auroral algorithm in the AWS polar ionospheric model, Hardy determined a relation between the Kp and the Q index. The analysis indicates that the auroral oval index Q computed from the AWS-K is overestimated. A least-squared deviation circle is fitted to the data base used in the Hardy algorithm. Using a four-year data set of Kp and Q observations, a new relation between the planetary magnetic activity index Kp and Q is determined to rectify this overestimation of the Q index. The new relation is :Q=0.964 Kp-0.3 for Kp less than 2 + and 0=2.04 Kp-2.7 for Kp greater than 2 +. The improved, more precise Q values obtained from this relation will improve prediction of the auroral oval phenomena that affect the performance of the real time operational systems.

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