Depth variation of coseismic stress drop explains bimodal earthquake magnitude-frequency distribution

Details Depth variation of coseismic stress drop explains bimodal earthquake magnitude-frequency distribution Depth variation of coseismic stress drop explains bimodal earthquake magnitude-frequency distribution

Dec 2008

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2008georl..3524301z&link_type=abstract

Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 35, Issue 24, CiteID L24301

Mathematics

Probability

1

Seismology: Earthquake Interaction, Forecasting, And Prediction (1217, 1242), Seismology: Seismicity And Tectonics (1207, 1217, 1240, 1242), Structural Geology: Dynamics And Mechanics Of Faulting (8118), Structural Geology: Mechanics, Theory, And Modeling

Scientific paper

An essential part of seismic hazard analysis is the earthquake size-frequency relationship, used to estimate earthquake recurrence time, and thus probability. A key feature of those distributions is their bimodal character: small to moderate magnitude earthquakes follow the Gutenberg-Richter (GR) inverse power-law relation while large magnitude (characteristic) earthquakes are more frequent than anticipated from GR, following approximately a gaussian distribution around the maximum magnitude limited by fault geometry. Using a numerical earthquake simulator, we show that the temperature dependence of friction behavior and therefore the depth-variation of coseismic stress drop, derived from laboratory friction experiments, presents a simple and comprehensive explanation for the observed bimodal seismicity distribution. Characteristic earthquakes are the result of an abrupt increase in rupture width at the transition from small to large earthquakes.

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