Mathematics – Probability
Scientific paper
May 2011
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2011spd....42.1406p&link_type=abstract
American Astronomical Society, SPD meeting #42, #14.06; Bulletin of the American Astronomical Society, Vol. 43, 2011
Mathematics
Probability
Scientific paper
In this study we have examined the probability of solar proton events (SEPs) and their peak fluxes depending on flare (intensity, longitude and impulsive time) and CME parameters (linear speed and angular width). For this we used the NOAA SPE events and their associated flare data from 1976 to 2006 and CME data from 1997 to 2006. From this study, we found that about only 3.5% (1.9% for M-class and 21.3% for X-class) of the flares are associated with the proton events. It is also found that this fraction strongly depends on longitude; for example, the fraction for 30W° < L < 90W° is about three times larger than that for 30°E < L < 90°E. The occurrence probability of solar proton events for flares with long duration (≥ 0.3 hours) is about 2 (X-class flare) to 7 (M-class flare) times larger than that for flares with short duration (< 0.3 hours). In the case of halo CMEs with V ≥ 1500km/s, 36.1% are associated with SPEs but in the case of partial halo CME (120° ≤ AW < 359°) with 400 km/s ≤ V < 1000 km/s, only 0.9% are associated with SPEs. The relationship between X-ray flare peak intensity and proton flux as well as its correlation coefficient strongly depends on longitude and impulsive time. It is also noted that the relationship between CME speed and proton flux depends on longitude as well as direction parameter.
Moon YaeEun
Park Jinhye
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