Delayed onset of the 2002 Indian monsoon

Details Delayed onset of the 2002 Indian monsoon Delayed onset of the 2002 Indian monsoon

Jul 2003

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2003georl..30asc13f&link_type=abstract

Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 30, Issue 14, pp. ASC 13-1, CiteID 1768, DOI 10.1029/2003GL017434

Mathematics

Logic

11

Meteorology And Atmospheric Dynamics: Climatology (1620), Meteorology And Atmospheric Dynamics: Ocean/Atmosphere Interactions (0312, 4504), Meteorology And Atmospheric Dynamics: Tropical Meteorology

Scientific paper

We show that there is a set of dynamical predictors, which facilitate forecasting of a delayed monsoon onset. The main dynamical contributor is the early May propagation of the ``bogus onset Intraseasonal Oscillation'' which triggers a set of events precluding the climatological monsoon onset. We analyze in detail the 2002 monsoon onset and show that it followed a pattern described in our previous study. We notice that the 2003 monsoon onset followed very similar pattern and was delayed.

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