Statistics – Applications
Scientific paper
2012-01-20
Statistics
Applications
Changes w.r.t. v1: new notation, included some extra simulation results
Scientific paper
Familial Searching is the process of searching in a DNA database for relatives of a given individual. It is well known that in order to evaluate the genetic evidence in favour of a certain given form of relatedness between two individuals, one needs to calculate the appropriate likelihood ratio, which is in this context called a Kinship Index. Suppose that the database contains, for a given type of relative, at most one related individual. Given prior probabilities of being the relative for all persons in the database, we derive the likelihood ratio for each database member in favour of being that relative. This likelihood ratio takes all the Kinship Indices between target and members of the database into account. We also compute the corresponding posterior probabilities. We then discuss two ways of selecting a subset from the database that contains the relative with a known probability, or at least a useful lower bound thereof. We discuss the relation between these approaches and illustrate them with Familial Searching carried out in the Dutch National DNA Database. Since this method applies to any situation where one wishes to retrieve a `special' item out of a set of 'generic' items based on likelihood ratios, we have formulated the search strategies in this general context.
Meester Ronald
Slooten Klaas
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