Data Assimilation for Dynamo Modeling and Solar Cycle Prediction

Details Data Assimilation for Dynamo Modeling and Solar Cycle Prediction Data Assimilation for Dynamo Modeling and Solar Cycle Prediction

Dec 2011

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2011agufmsh54a..02k&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2011, abstract #SH54A-02

Statistics

Methodology

Data Assimilation

Scientific paper

Incredible growth of space technologies makes them more and more vulnerable to solar impacts. From this point of view accurate predictions of solar activity on various time scales are critical for planning future space missions, space experiments, and also important for reducing these impacts on ground services. Observed cyclic variations of solar activity are a result of a complicated non-linear dynamo process in the convection zone that is not fully understood. Therefore dynamo models cannot be used for direct predictions. Also, the information about convective flows is usually limited to surface observations, and only recently we have started measurements of interior flows by helioseismology. Data assimilation methods combine the available observational data and models for an efficient and accurate estimation of physical properties of the dynamo process, which cannot be observed directly. This approach allows us to make predictions even when our knowledge of a system is incomplete. It has been successfully used in meteorology, but is relatively new in the solar activity studies. I will discuss the general methodology of data assimilation methods for the solar dynamo modeling, its implementation for short and long term predictions of the sunspot cycles, and also limitations and uncertainties of this approach.

Affiliated with

Also associated with

No associations

Rating

Data Assimilation for Dynamo Modeling and Solar Cycle Prediction does not yet have a rating. At this time, there are no reviews or comments for this scientific paper.

If you have personal experience with Data Assimilation for Dynamo Modeling and Solar Cycle Prediction, we encourage you to share that experience with our LandOfFree.com community. Your opinion is very important and Data Assimilation for Dynamo Modeling and Solar Cycle Prediction will most certainly appreciate the feedback.

Rate now

Comments { 0 }

Profile ID: LFWR-SCP-O-1889054