Astronomy and Astrophysics – Astrophysics
Scientific paper
Dec 2009
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2009agufmgc11a0688e&link_type=abstract
American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2009, abstract #GC11A-0688
Astronomy and Astrophysics
Astrophysics
[0360] Atmospheric Composition And Structure / Radiation: Transmission And Scattering, [1650] Global Change / Solar Variability, [3305] Atmospheric Processes / Climate Change And Variability, [7536] Solar Physics, Astrophysics, And Astronomy / Solar Activity Cycle
Scientific paper
An inverse relationship between hurricane frequency and intensity over the Caribbean and the number of sunspots has been recently identified. Here we investigate this relationship and find support for the hypothesis that changes in ultraviolet (UV) radiation rather than changes in other concomitant solar and cosmic variations are the cause. The relationship is statistically significant after accounting for variation in ocean heat and the El Niño cycle. A cooling response in the upper troposphere due to decreased solar UV forcing on photochemistry, radiative heating, and dynamics in the stratosphere increases the atmosphere's convective available potential energy leading to a stronger cyclone. The mean amplitude of the intensity response is 4.3 ± 1.86 m/s per 0.01 Mg II units (s.d.), which is quantitatively consistent with the heat-engine theory of tropical cyclone intensity but is less sensitive by a factor of 2 to 3 to an equivalent amount of warming at the ocean surface.
Elsner J.
Hodges Richard R.
Jagger T.
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