Economy – Quantitative Finance – Statistical Finance
Scientific paper
2008-08-25
Acta Physica Polonica A 114, 699-702 (2008)
Economy
Quantitative Finance
Statistical Finance
to appear in Acta Physica Polonica A
Scientific paper
Methodology that recently lead us to predict to an amazing accuracy the date (July 11, 2008) of reverse of the oil price up trend is briefly summarized and some further aspects of the related oil price dynamics elaborated. This methodology is based on the concept of discrete scale invariance whose finance-prediction-oriented variant involves such elements as log-periodic self-similarity, the universal preferred scaling factor lambda=2, and allows a phenomenon of the "super-bubble". From this perspective the present (as of August 22, 2008) violent - but still log-periodically decelerating - decrease of the oil prices is associated with the decay of such a "super- bubble" that has started developing about one year ago on top of the longer-term oil price increasing phase (normal bubble) whose ultimate termination is evaluated to occur in around mid 2010.
Drozdz Stanislaw
Kwapien Jaroslaw
Oswiecimka Pawel
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