Critical Trajectories for the Human Settlement of the High Frontier

Details Critical Trajectories for the Human Settlement of the High Frontier Critical Trajectories for the Human Settlement of the High Frontier

Feb 2007

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2007aipc..886..123v&link_type=abstract

NEW TRENDS IN ASTRODYNAMICS AND APPLICATIONS III. AIP Conference Proceedings, Volume 886, pp. 123-130 (2007).

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Spaceborne And Space Research Instruments, Apparatus, And Components

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If preservation and prosperity of humanity on the Earth and human settlement of space are our goals, we should concentrate on a commercial path to get there. Commercial enterprise has a long history of fortuitously aiding scientific progress. We expect radical changes in the cost of earth to orbit transportation, and in the methods and efficacy of deep space transportation, within the next two decades.
A successful space tourism industry, beginning with suborbital tourism, will greatly drive down the cost of access to orbit over the next 15 years. Inexpensive transportation to low Earth orbit is the first requirement for a great future on the High Frontier. Inexpensive means the cost associated with a mature transportation system. A mature system has a cost of three to five times the cost of the propellant. The first cheap, reliable and highly reusable rocket engines are just now appearing in vehicles. With an assured market and high flight rate, the heretofore glacial progress in reducing the cost of space transportation is likely to become rapid. This is the first critical enabling example of synergy between free market economics and scientific and technical progress in space. It will not be the last.
New high power switches and ultracapacitors developed for the automotive market make possible cheap, robust and reliable mass driver engines. In space construction, using masses of nonterrestrial materials make the gravity tractor technique much more capable than previous schemes to maneuver asteroids. Ion propulsion will continue to improve and the first solar sails will be flown. Advanced robotics will allow remarkable improvements in productivity. The computing power available to robots began to follow the exponential Moore's law less than decade ago. The first commercial autonomous mobile robots appeared in late summer 2006. Humans, however, will be required for the foreseeable future in repair and supervisory roles, particularly in unstructured settings such as asteroid mines.
The evolution from small tourist stations of the next decade to large space hotels will make economical the use of fully closed life-support systems. These could be considered the first space colonies. Derivatives of these commercial space hotels may form suitable Moon and asteroid mining habitats.
Using nonterrestrial materials is a key to opening the space frontier. Dozens of rendezvous missions to Near Earth Objects will be needed to assay their resources and to plan rational NEO diversion. The development of NEO mining techniques serves two purposes, raw materials supply and planetary defense. We need economical trajectories to and from these bodies. These trajectories must not only be economical in terms of delta V or time, but in dollars, and in the time value of money, factors not generally considered by the OMB.
Satellite solar power stations may be a $500 billion per year market worldwide and cheap nickel steel from asteroids may be an enabler of power satellite construction. One asteroid of the right size and composition in a suitable orbit could open this market. Platinum group metals may be an important export, either as a primary product, or as a byproduct of nickel steel alloy production. Other products, derived from carbon, may also be important. The first economical product from an asteroid mine is likely to be water, for propellant or life-support and radiation shielding in space hotels.

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