Cosmic-ray forecasting features for big Forbush decreases.

Details Cosmic-ray forecasting features for big Forbush decreases. Cosmic-ray forecasting features for big Forbush decreases.

Feb 1995

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1995nuphs..39..136d&link_type=abstract

Nuclear Physics B - Proceedings Supplements, vol. 39, issue 1, pp. 136-143

Statistics

3

Cosmic Rays: Forbush Effect, Cosmic Rays: Statistics, Cosmic Rays: Predictions, Forbush Effect: Forecasts

Scientific paper

The authors discuss three phenomena that can be used for forecasting FDs: 1) CR intensity increase, of non solar-flare origin, occurring before sudden commencement of a major geomagnetic storm connected with FD (pre-increase effect), 2) CR intensity decrease before FD (pre-decrease effect), 3) change in CR fluctuations before FD. The authors investigate several such events by the global survey method for the years 1989 - 1991. They analyse the behaviour of the isotropic CR intensity and of the 3-dimensional vector of CR anisotropy before FDs, as well as results on CR scintillation of 1-hour and 5-minute data. They discuss a possible procedure of data treatment for future FD-forecasting analyses.

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