Convective scheme and resolution impacts on seasonal precipitation forecasts

Details Convective scheme and resolution impacts on seasonal precipitation forecasts Convective scheme and resolution impacts on seasonal precipitation forecasts

Oct 2003

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2003georl..30tclm8s&link_type=abstract

Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 30, Issue 20, pp. CLM 8-1, CiteID 2078, DOI 10.1029/2003GL018297

Computer Science

Performance

2

Meteorology And Atmospheric Dynamics: Precipitation (1854), Meteorology And Atmospheric Dynamics: Numerical Modeling And Data Assimilation, Meteorology And Atmospheric Dynamics: Tropical Meteorology

Scientific paper

An investigation is carried out to assess the role of different convective schemes and resolutions in seasonal quantitative forecasts of precipitation. The model performances are evaluated by changing convective schemes and the resolution impacts are examined by increasing the model horizontal resolution from T63 to T170 and finally T255. The predicted rainfall amounts are compared against the TRMM satellite estimate. Every forecast captures prominent rainfall features reasonably well. However, there are pros and cons in each of the forecasts. Predicted seasonal rainfall patterns and intensities from changing convective schemes exhibit larger variability and higher impact on predictability than those from increasing resolution. The impact of higher resolution with any currently implemented cumulus parameterization turns out to be smaller in seasonal precipitation forecasts than in short- to medium-range forecasts.

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