Mathematics – Probability
Scientific paper
Feb 2008
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2008georl..3503814j&link_type=abstract
Geophysical Research Letters, Volume 35, Issue 3, CiteID L03814
Mathematics
Probability
6
Atmospheric Processes: Regional Modeling, Atmospheric Processes: Clouds And Aerosols, Atmospheric Composition And Structure: Pollution: Urban And Regional (0305, 0478, 4251), Atmospheric Composition And Structure: Aerosols And Particles (0345, 4801, 4906)
Scientific paper
Nowadays none of the operational daily forecasts in Europe includes the influence of Saharan dust on a non-climatic basis. In order to account for this, the BSC-CNS currently operates daily photochemical forecasts in the Iberian Peninsula with MM5-EMEP-CMAQ modelling system and Saharan dust forecasts over Southern Europe with Eta/DREAM. The necessity of coupling both modelling systems is addressed by the study of a long summer episode combining regional re-circulations and Saharan dust covering from June 19 to July 12, 2006. As a first approach, the natural dust contribution from Eta/DREAM is added on-line to the anthropogenic output of CMAQ. The performance of the model has been quantitatively evaluated with discrete and categorical (skill scores) statistics by a fully operational on-line comparison of the first-layer simulations results of CMAQ and CMAQ+DREAM and the values measured in two different stations located in the Mediterranean part of the domain. The results indicate a remarkable improvement in the discrete and skill-scores evaluation (accuracy, critical success index and probability of detection) of PM10 exceedances set in regulations when using CMAQ+DREAM compared to CMAQ- or DREAM-alone simulations.
Baldasano Jose M.
Jiménez-Guerrero Pedro
Jorba Oriol
Pérez Carlos
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