Contrasting Probabilistic Scoring Rules

Details Contrasting Probabilistic Scoring Rules Contrasting Probabilistic Scoring Rules

2011-12-19

arxiv.org/abs/1112.4530v2

Mathematics

Statistics Theory

12 pages, 0 figures

Scientific paper

There are several scoring rules that one can choose from in order to score probabilistic forecasting models or estimate model parameters. Whilst it is generally agreed that proper scoring rules are preferable, there is no clear criterion for preferring one proper scoring rule above another. This manuscript compares and contrasts properties of some commonly used proper scoring rules and provides guidance on scoring rule selection. In particular, it is shown that the logarithmic scoring rule prefers erring on the side of caution, whereas the other scoring rules tend to be indifferent to the alternative risky option.

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