Constraints on the Number of Kuiper Belt Objects from the Deep Ecliptic Survey

Mathematics – Probability

Scientific paper

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Scientific paper

The Deep Ecliptic Survey, or DES, was a systematic survey for Kuiper Belt Objects with primary observations from 1998-2005. Over 800 square degrees of the sky were surveyed, and the DES found roughly 40% of the 1200 objects with preliminary designations from the Minor Planet Center at the time of survey completion. By correcting the survey data for observational bias, we have calculated the probability of discovering each individual object. The probablities range from a high value of 0.38 for 2002PO149 (a Classical object -- see Elliot et al. 2005, Astron. J. 129, 1117 for definitions of the DES dynamical classes) to a low value of 2 x 10^-6 for 82158 (a Scattered Near object). From these probabilities, we can estimate the relative populations of different dynamical classes of objects, provided there are a sufficient number of objects in the class. A few dynamical classes, such as Classical and 3:2 Resonant objects, have enough members for relatively robust statistics, and we estimate the size distributions. We also compare the ratio of objects in different classes to theoretical predictions (Hahn & Malhotra 2005, Astron. J. 130, 2392), based on Neptune migration models. This work was supported, in part, by NSF Grants AST0406493 and AST0707609.

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