Comparison of Three Magnetopause Prediction Models Under Extreme Solar-Wind Conditions

Details Comparison of Three Magnetopause Prediction Models Under Extreme Solar-Wind Conditions Comparison of Three Magnetopause Prediction Models Under Extreme Solar-Wind Conditions

May 2001

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2001agusm..sm42d10y&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Spring Meeting 2001, abstract #SM42D-10

Mathematics

Probability

2722 Forecasting, 2724 Magnetopause, Cusp, And Boundary Layers, 2740 Magnetospheric Configuration And Dynamics, 2784 Solar Wind/Magnetosphere Interactions

Scientific paper

A new criterion is used to evaluate the forecasting capabilities of the models of Chao et al. [2000], Shue et al. [1998] and Petrinec and Russell [1996] by using the radial distance, r, and more precise intervals predicted to the nearest minutes when the GOES spacecraft reside in the magnetosheath where the crossings by GOES spacecraft during 1986-1992 are used. This criterion can help determine which prediction of the size and shape of the magnetopause is closer to observations under given interplanetary Bz and dynamic pressure conditions. Such a comparison is useful not only for forecasting space weather but also for providing an accurate estimate of the shape and location of the boundary of the magnetosphere. Three parameters are defined to quantify the models' forecasting capability: probability of prediction (PoP), probability of detection (PoD) and false alarm rate (FAR). A higher PoP and PoD with a lower FAR imply a better forecasting model. Our results show that the PoD of the three models are all over 90%, which means most of the magnetopause crossings at 6.6 RE, predicted by the models, can be detected. The high PoP of the Chao et al. [2000] model (87%) means the CM predicts well when crossings occur and when they do not occur. The values of FAR for Chao et al. [2000], Shue et al. [1998] and Petrinec and Russell [1996] models are 62%, 78%, 85%, respectively. Further study of the geosynchronous magnetopause crossings of GOES spacecraft for the period from 1999 to 2000 using WIND and GEOTAIL as the solar wind monitor confirms our previous conclusions. However, the PoD of Petrinec and Russell [1996] model (94%) is much higher than those of Shue et al. [1998] (74%) and Chao et al. [2000] (80%) models.

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