Computer Science – Performance
Scientific paper
May 2010
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2010aas...21640623n&link_type=abstract
American Astronomical Society, AAS Meeting #216, #406.23; Bulletin of the American Astronomical Society, Vol. 41, p.883
Computer Science
Performance
Scientific paper
Two kinematic solar wind models were executed to generate five-day forecasts for each day that a daily magnetogram was available in the odd-numbered years of Solar Cycle 23. This yielded over 1500 forecasts from the Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) and Hakamada-Akasofu-Fry version 2 (HAFv2) that are run daily at the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center and the Air Force Weather Agency, respectively. An extensive evaluation of the models’ performance allows an assessment of their value in space weather prediction over representative portions of a complete solar cycle. This was done by comparing model outputs at the L1 point near Earth with in-situ measurements made by solar wind and magnetic field sensors aboard the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) and Wind satellites. Comparative forecast-observation difference statistics were computed for the two forecast parameters available from the WSA model: solar wind radial speed and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) polarity (positive or negative). Statistics were formulated separately by forecast day for each of the study years in order to determine their variance with forecast duration and phase of solar cycle. The results indicated both similarities and differences in the two models. For example, both exhibit a slowing of the solar wind with increasing forecast duration, and both improve prediction of IMF polarity with increasing solar activity. But WSA shows a reduction in the standard deviation of the forecast-observation difference that depends on study year, while HAF appears to reflect the reduction regardless of phase of the solar cycle. A number of statistics will be shown that will point out relative strengths and weaknesses of the two models.
Meeks W.
Norquist Donald C.
No associations
LandOfFree
Comparing the Verification of Forecasts from Two Operational Solar Wind Models does not yet have a rating. At this time, there are no reviews or comments for this scientific paper.
If you have personal experience with Comparing the Verification of Forecasts from Two Operational Solar Wind Models, we encourage you to share that experience with our LandOfFree.com community. Your opinion is very important and Comparing the Verification of Forecasts from Two Operational Solar Wind Models will most certainly appreciate the feedback.
Profile ID: LFWR-SCP-O-1890969