Comparing Relativistic Electron Prediction Models at Geosynchronous

Details Comparing Relativistic Electron Prediction Models at Geosynchronous Comparing Relativistic Electron Prediction Models at Geosynchronous

Dec 2005

adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2005agufmsm51d..08g&link_type=abstract

American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2005, abstract #SM51D-08

Computer Science

Performance

2720 Energetic Particles: Trapped, 2722 Forecasting (7924, 7964), 2774 Radiation Belts, 7924 Forecasting (2722), 7959 Models

Scientific paper

Extended periods of relativistic electron intensity at geosynchronous orbit can create severe deep-charging hazards for satellites. Several models have been developed over the last fifteen years to predict electron flux levels using solar wind and geomagnetic indexes as inputs. We analyze four of these models, USAF and NOAA/Space Environment Center after Baker et al. [1990], Koons and Gorney [1991], Li [2004], and Rigler et al. [2004], as a function of the solar cycle to determine which ones give the best 1, 2 and 3 day forecasts. The predictions of each model are compared to the standard GOES > 2 MeV electron flux and the performance measured by calculating skill scores in which the subject forecast is compared to a persistence reference forecast. Preliminary results will be presented.

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