Mathematics – Probability
Scientific paper
Aug 1988
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1988geoj...94..249b&link_type=abstract
Geophysical Journal (ISSN 0952-4592), vol. 94, Aug. 1988, p. 249-261. Previously announced in STAR as N88-13820.
Mathematics
Probability
31
Bayes Theorem, Inversions, Prediction Analysis Techniques, Probability Distribution Functions, Stochastic Processes, Geophysics, Linear Programming, Vectors (Mathematics)
Scientific paper
In linear inversion of a finite-dimensional data vector y to estimate a finite-dimensional prediction vector z, prior information about X sub E is essential if y is to supply useful limits for z. The one exception occurs when all the prediction functionals are linear combinations of the data functionals. Two forms of prior information are compared: a soft bound on X sub E is a probability distribution p sub x on X which describes the observer's opinion about where X sub E is likely to be in X; a hard bound on X sub E is an inequality Q sub x(X sub E, X sub E) is equal to or less than 1, where Q sub x is a positive definite quadratic form on X. A hard bound Q sub x can be softened to many different probability distributions p sub x, but all these p sub x's carry much new information about X sub E which is absent from Q sub x, and some information which contradicts Q sub x. Both stochastic inversion (SI) and Bayesian inference (BI) estimate z from y and a soft prior bound p sub x. If that probability distribution was obtained by softening a hard prior bound Q sub x, rather than by objective statistical inference independent of y, then p sub x contains so much unsupported new information absent from Q sub x that conclusions about z obtained with SI or BI would seen to be suspect.
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