Other
Scientific paper
May 2001
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=2001acasn..42..125w&link_type=abstract
Acta Astronomica Sinica, vol.42, no.2, p. 125-133.
Other
4
Meteoroic Stream, Leonids, Comets, Meteoric Shower
Scientific paper
The Leonid meteor shower has the most spectacular burst in history as one of famous meteor showers. Since 1998 a new series of activity of the Leonids has been coming. To predict what will it be in resent years and the future, a review on the appearances of the showers in history is done. Especially, the diagram of CEOS (the Comet-Earth Orbits Separation) versus TE-C (the time gap of the Earth following the Comet) was analyzed. It is found that on the diagram almost all of the data of CEOS versus TE-C of the meteor storms are distributed in an inclined square, moreover the strongest storms in a curved strip. The boundaries of the square have a slope in unit of speed with a value of about 15 m s-1. The sizes of meteoroids calculated from this velocity are also reasonable. It means that the particles colliding with the Earth have a limiting velocity to drift off its original orbit. The bigger the CEOS was, the longer time gap after the comet passed would be needed for a possible storm. The width of this square indicates the stronger Leonid showers would be never seen longer than about four consecutive years. In one cometary return, the ratio of bright meteors will decrease year by year. These facts could be explained by a model of the formation of a cometary dust tail, including motion, dispersion, and breaking up of the dust particles. Prediction could be got with this square region, it is that we may have Leonid showers only in 1998-2000 with a peak in 1999. After AD 2000 it will be another century before significant displays are once again likely.
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