Collisions in the solar system. I - Impacts of the Apollo-Amor-Aten asteroids upon the terrestrial planets

Mathematics – Probability

Scientific paper

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Asteroids, Celestial Mechanics, Collisions, Solar System, Terrestrial Planets, Amor Asteroid, Apollo Asteroids, Orbital Elements, Probability Theory

Scientific paper

The collision probability between each of the presently-known population of four Aten, 34 Apollo and 38 Amor asteroids and each of the terrestrial planets is determined by a new technique. The resulting mean collision rates, coupled with estimates of the total undiscovered population of each class, is useful in calculating the rate of removal of these bodies by the terrestrial planets, and the cratering rate on each planet by bodies of diameter in excess of 1 km. The influx to the earth is found to be one impact per 160,000 yr, but this figure is biased by the inclusion of four recently-discovered low-inclination Apollos. Excluding these four the rate would be one per 250,000 yr, in line with previous estimates. The impact rate is highest for the earth, being around twice that of Venus. The rates for Mercury and Mars using the present sample are about one per 5 Myr and one per 1.5 Myr respectively.

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