Mathematics – Probability
Scientific paper
Jun 1978
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1978jgr....83.2637k&link_type=abstract
Journal of Geophysical Research, Volume 83, Issue A6, p. 2637-2646
Mathematics
Probability
25
Scientific paper
As the number of artificial satellites in earth orbit increases, the probability of collisions between satellites also increases. Satellite collisions would produce orbiting fragments, each of which would increase the probability of further collisions, leading to the growth of a belt of debris around the earth. This process parallels certain therories concerning the growth of the asteroid belt. The debris flux in such an earth-orbiting belt could exceed the natural meteoroid flux, affecting future spacecraft designs. A mathematical model was used to predict the rate at which such a belt might form. Under certain conditions the belt could begin to form within this century and could be a significant problem during the next century. The possibility that numerous unobserved fragments already exist from spacecraft explosions would decrease this time interval. However, early implementation of specialized launch constraints and operational procedures could significantly delay the formation of the belt.
Cour-Palais Burton G.
Kessler Donald J.
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