Mathematics – Probability
Scientific paper
Jul 1981
adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-data_query?bibcode=1981itaes..17..591t&link_type=abstract
IEEE Transactions on Aerospace and Electronic Systems, vol. AES-17, July 1981, p. 591-596.
Mathematics
Probability
Collision Rates, Probability Theory, Satellite Orbits, Spacecraft Reliability, Stationary Orbits, Collision Avoidance, Collision Parameters, Large Space Structures, Prediction Analysis Techniques, Reliability Analysis, Satellite Lifetime, Satellite Solar Power Stations
Scientific paper
The collisions between stationary satellites, and those between a stationary satellite and abandoned stationary satellites which have nearly synchronous orbits with relatively large inclination are discussed. A general formula is introduced for calculating the probability of collision, as a function of time, three-dimensional sizes, orbital bounds, and numbers of satellites. Numerical calculation shows that the probability of collision is negligible if the sizes and numbers are comparable to those of existing satellites, whereas collision is possible for large size, e.g., for a huge hypothetical gigawatt solar power satellite. The possibility would become large if the satellites continued to increase in number and to be abandoned in the stationary orbit at the present rate over a century, even if the size is ordinary, such as several meters.
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