Climate models and the astronomical theory of the ice ages

Astronomy and Astrophysics – Astronomy

Scientific paper

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Astronomy, Atmospheric Circulation, Climatology, Earth (Planet), Ice Environments, Atmospheric Models, Eccentric Orbits, Energy Budgets, Histories, Orbit Perturbation, Solar Orbits

Scientific paper

The relationship between equilibrium and nonequilibrium responses of climate to perturbations in the earth's orbital parameters, and its implications for climatic sensitivity, are discussed in the context of an empirical model due to Imbrie and Imbrie (1980). Counterintuitive features of the linear equilibrium response to the perihelion cycle in a simple energy balance model are described, and the results of North and Coakley (1979) and of Pollard et al. (1976) are examined as examples of, respectively, discouraging and encouraging results for proponents of the astronomical theory of the ice ages. Calculations of Manabe (1977, 1980), which are of relevance to the ice age problem, based on an atmospheric general circulation model, are noted.

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